Data-Mining Similar Scenarios for Uncertainty Quantification of Solar Wind Predictions at L1

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Accurate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for space weather forecasts is an ever-important supplementary variable to enable accurate risk response. Modeling uncertainty is itself a "model of a model", and one of the best datasets to describe a model's performance is a past database of it's predictions and after-the-fact observations. In this work, we develop a method based on k-NN and kernel regression to quantify uncertainty in the WSA solar wind model and it's predictions of the solar wind speed at L1. By constructing state vectors that describe the...