PRISM (Portfolio Risk Simulation Model)

The following methods are used to review PRISM outputs: Every instance: Outputs are reviewed each time they are generated, typically during transcription into final reports or before further analysis. Expert scrutiny: Professional analysts examine results, apply expert judgement and interpret findings. This includes tracing key drivers and validating assumptions so that any anomalies or irreconcilable computations...

An unrelated third-party member of the public is unlikely to be a position to have all the financial parameters of the original proposing parties or the deal specifics (obligor/exporter), and we could not comment on details that were commercial in confidence (for example to discuss privileged or politically sensitive deal information with competitors or members of the public). However, alternative pricing options...

and investigate discrepancies. Governance oversight: Results are challenged in senior committees (ERiCC, Risk Committee) and documented in formal papers for transparency and accountability. External assurance: PRISM methodology and outputs undergo annual external audit and were last fully validated by the Government Actuary Department. Review of PRISM Modelling Assumptions: Each year, ORA analysts conduct a comprehensive review of the assumptions underpinning PRISM. This involves engaging with subject matter exp...